Governor’s Race Tight
Three new polls to report today. MPR (via Mason Dixon) release their poll showing Pawlenty slightly ahead of Hatch but still within the margin of error (42% to 39%). Hutchinson is sitting at 5% and (in the few that list it) Pentel at 2%. The Humphrey Institute release their poll yesterday showing Hatch leading 44% to 42% with Hutchinson carrying 6%. Finally, the STrib poll with one that actually looks reasonable, shows an even split between Hatch and Pawlenty with 42% each with Hutchinson carrying 7%.
There’s a wind shift going on. The problem for Hatch is that it appears as if he’s peaking. He’s stayed in the low 40s for a while now. Pawlenty, too has been pretty consistant, but with a slight down-turn in the latest MPR poll gives him a little more instability than Hatch, but not worth noting (even though I did). Realistically, peaking doesn’t mean much. It suggests that any energy that begins in the campaign will likely be negative. However, it could be a slight respite than a peak. Hutchinson remains the most instable candidate numbers-wise. Unfortunately for him that energy is starting to show as a negative energy as his numbers seem to be falling. However, this instability means if he plays his cards right in the next few weeks, he could be shooting up rather than dwindling down.
Crystal Ball
Pawlenty — 42%
Hatch — 43%
Hutchinson — 11%