Northwest Metro Politics Blog

Final official NWMetro predictions:

Firstly, I’m changing my prediction for Missouri from the Senate map and am now predicting a Democratic victory there.

Governor:

Pawlenty — 46%
Hatch — 40%
Hutchinson — 14%

Senate:

Klobuchar — 49%
Kennedy — 44%
Fitzgerald — 7%

CD 5:

Ellison — 35%
Fine — 30%
Lee — 35%

CD 6:

Bachman — 48%
Wetterling — 47%
Binkowski — 5%

CD 1:

Gutknecht — 53%
Walz — 47%

No Percentages Predictions

SD 45:  Rest
LD 45A:  Peterson
LD 45B:  Carlson
SD 43:  Bonoff
SD 43A:  Hewitt

I’ve just posted a page (see upper right-hand corner), for my predictions for the Senate 2006 elections.

Summarizing the map, 49 Democrats to 51 Republicans. In this summary, I count the Independent wins as Democrats since they will caucus with the Dems.

I may change this if there is a significant enough change.

A slate of recent polls shows Hatch has some strength to oust Pawlenty.  However, it’s still a very close ballgame.  Election day has a nasty habit of throwing us surprises. 

Crystal Ball

Pawlenty — 42%
Hatch — 44%
Hutchinson — 9%

Up for grabs:  5%

If one believes polls, and I generally take them with a grain of salt, it appears the Republicans are suffering.  Depending on the polls you look at, it could be that that the Dems take both the House and the Senate…a feat thought nigh near impossible earlier this year.  I still say it’s going to be a squeak-in if they get the Senate, but they are polling well in NJ and TN as well as OH and PA.  MO is the big question mark.  They’re polling well, but no one seems to hold the lead long here.  MO is often seen as a bell-weather state, particularly with Presidental candidates.  I think this is bearing true as the nation is struggling with balancing issues like terrorism, economy, taxes and ethics.

On a local note, if I don’t see a sharp turn in the numbers for Kennedy, the election’s over (so to speak).  Klobuchar has been only increasing her numbers and Kennedy’s slowly decreasing.  The latest Rasmussen poll shows him back to the agonizing 40% mark.  The Kennedy camp cannot be happy.

Crystal Ball

Klobuchar — 51%
Kennedy — 39%
Fitzgerald — 6%

Note, like in many of my crystal ball forcasts, there are a certain number unassigned.  4% in this one.  In my final prediction, I’ll assign them, but for now anyone could pick those up.

So, www.electoral-vote.com now shows the Republicans with a 51:48:1 lead where the 1 is a statistical tie.  Republicans regained their momentum in Tennessee and took the lead (if ever so slightly) in Missouri.

In Minnesota, Klobuchar is in the lead in a SurveyUSA poll 51% to 43% and Fitzgerald taking 2%.  We see the energy has picked up in the numbers with Kennedy and Fitzgerald having most of it.  Again, its hard to tell if it will be positive or negative energy.  The only thing in Fitzgerald’s favor is that polls of “likely voters” notoriously are poor models for predicting the outcome for IP candidates.

Crystal Ball

Klobuchar — 51%
Kennedy — 39%
Fitzgerald — 7%

Okay, the Klobuchar camp has to be ecstatic about the last two polls.  And following the polls has got to be giving the Fitzgerald camp a head-ache…up, down, up, down, left, right, up, down….well you get the picture.  UoM/Humphrey Inst’s poll shows Klobuchar at 52%, Kennedy at 36% and Fitzgerald at 7%.  Now the MPR/Pioneer Press poll just out today shows Klobuchar at 52%, Kennedy at 37% but Fitzgerald at 1%.  Something’s clearly off here.  I fail to believe that the bottom has dropped out on the Fitzgerald campaign so instantaneously.  Especially since these two polls were done in the same time period.  However, I counted them both into my crystal ball.  The key here is that Klobuchar is now making this race difficult for Kennedy and Fitzgerald and we should soon see the mud-slinging coming out on the Kennedy camp.

Crystal Ball

Klobuchar — 49%
Kennedy — 40%
Fitzgerald — 8%

Three new polls to report today.  MPR (via Mason Dixon) release their poll showing Pawlenty slightly ahead of Hatch but still within the margin of error (42% to 39%).  Hutchinson is sitting at 5% and (in the few that list it) Pentel at 2%.  The Humphrey Institute release their poll yesterday showing Hatch leading 44% to 42% with Hutchinson carrying 6%.  Finally, the STrib poll with one that actually looks reasonable, shows an even split between Hatch and Pawlenty with 42% each with Hutchinson carrying 7%.

There’s a wind shift going on.  The problem for Hatch is that it appears as if he’s peaking.  He’s stayed in the low 40s for a while now.  Pawlenty, too has been pretty consistant, but with a slight down-turn in the latest MPR poll gives him a little more instability than Hatch, but not worth noting (even though I did).  Realistically, peaking doesn’t mean much.  It suggests that any energy that begins in the campaign will likely be negative.  However, it could be a slight respite than a peak.  Hutchinson remains the most instable candidate numbers-wise.  Unfortunately for him that energy is starting to show as a negative energy as his numbers seem to be falling.  However, this instability means if he plays his cards right in the next few weeks, he could be shooting up rather than dwindling down.

Crystal Ball

Pawlenty — 42%
Hatch — 43%
Hutchinson — 11%

Okay, maybe a little overboard there, but how does the STrib consistantly show Klobuchar trouncing Kennedy in their polls when every other poll is showing a tight race?!  Since personally, I like to keep my numbers clean, I won’t use them in my Crystal Ball, however, I will post them for your amusement.  Klobuchar 56%, Kennedy 32%, Robert Fitzgerald 3%.

Let’s look at a more local race here, Freshman Democrat Sandra Peterson is seeking to defend her seat from Republican challenger Sarah Durenberger.  The irony, I feel in this election is that when Rep. Peterson ousted Republican Lynn Osterman last election cycle, there was a bit of a hoopla regarding mailers the Democratic Party sent out to the constituents.  It accused Osterman of marching to the tune of the Republican agenda in lock-step.  Now that we’ve had a taste of Rep. Peterson’s first two years, we can see that she is ever more lock-step with her party than Osterman was.

For full disclosure, I should note that I ran against Rep. Peterson and Rep. Osterman last election cycle.  This is my home district though.

What irks me is looking at Rep Peterson’s record in the House and the bills she introduced.  Almost all of them was a spending bill.   There were no bills even attempting to pay for them.  We cannot spend willy-nilly.  Even if she would have put through a failed bill to raise taxes to pay for her projects, I would respect that (even if I would disagree with it).  Rep. Peterson ran as a moderate to boot and someone willing to work across party lines.  Well, to be fair, she co-authored a bill with Rep. Jeff Johnson (R) to do work on Hwy 169.  But for all intents and purposes, that was a no-brainer.  A moderate willing to cross party lines would have worked to propose an inovative solution for (say) education (her pet…well…only topic) that has a prayer of passing the House.  Instead she parrotted the Democratic call for more funding even though the Republican majority were resolute in rejecting that Democratic plan.

So what is our other choice?  Sarah Durenberger.  Well, she definitely is Republican and not particularly moderate, too.  She certainly isn’t your average citizen.  She’s a staffer at the Capitol, so not exactly an outsider.  However, she has experience and contacts, if that matters to you.  Unfortunately, she’s barking the tired Republican mantra of spend nothing and get the government out of everything.  At least her compatriot Derek Bingham (Senate candidate for 45) admits that at times (even if they are rare) there is a need to increase revenue through tax increases.

Rep. Peterson is a one-trick pony.  Everything, no matter what, can be solved by putting more more money into education.  You’ve got problems with your roads, why you can solve that with a better education system!  What?!  Miss Durenberger on the other side seems to be too right to be representative of our very centrist district.  Our problem is we have no good choices.

This election will likely be won with money.  Rep. Peterson is formerly the head of the powerful Education Minnesota (the teacher’s union) and gets loads of funding from there and other sources.  So much that she refused to abide by the state spending limits (an option she had the right to choose).  If Durenberger can counter that, she’s got a fighting chance, otherwise 45A will see another two years of Rep Peterson.

Okay, I’ve processed a bunch of polls that I hadn’t processed before.  So instead of posting poll numbers, I’ll just post my current projections:

Senate

Klobuchar — 49%
Kennedy — 41%
Fitzgerald — 9%

Governor

Pawlenty — 43%
Hatch — 41%
Hutchinson — 12%

Let’s be clear, though, the Governor’s race is highly volitile and could swing any way very quickly.  Hutchinson shows slightly more energy that either Pawlenty or Hatch, but will it be positive or negative?  Currently, the numbers are rising in his favor.  On the senate side, Klobuchar is holding steady with all the energy split between Fitzgerald and Kennedy.  It’s clear that their message hasn’t swayed those considering Klobuchar.  If they can get something to resonate, their energy could knock Klobuchar down.